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We are currently witnessing a phase of intense Bitcoin accumulation. We possess a tool that analyzes Bitcoin flows to and from exchanges in real-time. Today, we have reached a historic minimum in terms of Bitcoin supply across all exchanges – the current value stands at approximately 674,000 (BTC reserves available on exchanges). ETFs have accumulated over 1 million BTC worth over 68 billion USD since January 11th of this year. The demand surpasses the current capabilities of miners.
Over the past week, the market underwent a correction where a significant portion of projects lost 30% of their value, and Bitcoin dropped by 10%. However, our fund did not feel the impact due to the fact that a few days before the correction, I added a project that surged by 40% while the entire market was losing, averaging at 22%. The fund managed exceptionally well and reached an all-time high in unit valuation at 31€ on March 16th, 2024. Let's always wish for such corrections:).
Bitcoin's halving is approaching soon – currently estimated to occur between April 17th and 21st, 2024.
I anticipate a period of greater tranquility ahead of the halving – this is the last quarter where we need to build our position in the market, as ultimately we expect a scenario as outlined below. However, this is a pure projection based on historical market behavior:
This article highlights the current state of Bitcoin accumulation, recent market corrections, and the anticipation surrounding the upcoming halving event. As we navigate through this period, strategic positioning and understanding market dynamics remain crucial for us and our investors.
Marcin Wituś, CEO of Geco Capital
